Forecast confidence: Thunderstorm timing is inherently uncertain and may shift by several hours.
from the morning into the evening. Leave exposed summits and ridges if thunder develops.
Burns and unbridged crossings may rise quickly. Assess them at the water and turn back if unsure.
Cloud-free timing: Around 67% early, improving to around 100% later.
A wild day on Diffwys: summit wind broadly 15-30 mph, with gusts 30-40 mph early in the morning (strong winds). Thunderstorms are forecast from the morning into the evening. Avoid exposed summits and ridges during the risk period. There could be a spate risk based on forecast rainfall. Burns and unbridged crossings may rise quickly. Most likely from around 06:00 until around 15:00. Much calmer lower down - generally 5-15 mph in the valley, rising towards the tops. Any cloud sits well above the tops (base 1000-1500 m) - clear summits. Cloud is likely to hang lowest on southeastern slopes; the northwestern side should see somewhat higher bases and better breaks. A persistently wet day is possible, with around 5-10 mm indicated; local totals could vary considerably. Confidence moderate (forecast models agree on the walking impact of the wind) - the summit peak could reasonably be 24-29 mph, so treat the headline as mid-range. Cloud base is the least certain part of this - the models are only moderately agreed, so it could sit a couple of hundred metres either way.


