Forecast confidence: Thunderstorm timing is inherently uncertain and may shift by several hours.
from the morning into the evening. Leave exposed summits and ridges if thunder develops.
Cloud-free timing: Around 100% early, falling to around 80% later.
A mixed day on Moel Eilio: summit wind broadly 10-30 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph early in the morning (strong winds). Thunderstorms are a significant hazard from the morning into the evening. Exposed summits and ridges are a poor choice while storms are nearby. Much calmer lower down - generally 0-10 mph in the valley, rising towards the tops. Any cloud sits well above the tops (base 1000-1500 m) - clear summits. Cloud is likely to hang lowest on southeastern slopes; the northwestern side should see somewhat higher bases and better breaks. Some rain is likely, with around 5-10 mm indicated; timing and local totals remain uncertain. Confidence moderate (forecast models agree on the walking impact of the wind) - the summit peak could reasonably be 20-25 mph, so treat the headline as mid-range. Cloud base is the least certain part of this - the models are only moderately agreed, so it could sit a couple of hundred metres either way.


