The Cairnwell weather forecast.

Forecast confidence: A low thunderstorm risk remains difficult to time precisely.

Cloud-free timing: Around 67% early, falling to around 20% later.

A mixed day on The Cairnwell: summit wind broadly 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph around midday (fresh and blowy). Cloud base around 900–1200 m in the morning, lowering to 1000–1300 m around midday and 700–1000 m by late afternoon. The top is likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of a view from the morning into the afternoon. Cloud is likely to hang lowest on eastern slopes; the western side should see somewhat higher bases and better breaks. Little or no rain expected.

Forecast confidence: A low thunderstorm risk remains difficult to time precisely.

Cloud-free timing: Best around midday at about 50%; around 0% early and 0% later.

A grey, cloudy day on The Cairnwell: summit wind broadly 10-30 mph, with gusts 30-40 mph early in the morning (strong winds). Thunderstorms are possible from the morning into the afternoon. Keep an escape route from exposed ridges and descend if thunder develops. Much calmer lower down - generally 0-10 mph in the valley, rising towards the tops. Cloud base around 600–900 m in the morning, then around 2900–3200 m around midday and 400–700 m by late afternoon. The top is likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of a view during the afternoon. Some rain is likely, with around 2-5 mm indicated; timing and local totals remain uncertain. Confidence moderate (Summit wind could be roughly 17-33 mph, which changes how difficult exposed walking may feel) - the summit peak could reasonably be 17-33 mph, so treat the headline as mid-range.

Forecast confidence: A low thunderstorm risk remains difficult to time precisely.

Cloud-free timing: Around 0% early, improving to around 20% later.

A grey, cloudy day on The Cairnwell: summit wind broadly 5-15 mph, with gusts 10-20 mph during the afternoon (a moderate breeze). Thunderstorms are possible from the morning into the evening. Keep an escape route from exposed ridges and descend if thunder develops. Cloud base around 400-700 m in the morning, lifting to 800-1100 m around midday. The top is likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of a view during the afternoon. Some rain is likely, with up to around 2 mm indicated; timing and local totals remain uncertain. Cloud base is the least certain part of this - the models are only moderately agreed, so it could sit a couple of hundred metres either way.

Forecast confidence: Thunderstorm timing is inherently uncertain and may shift by several hours.

Cloud-free timing: Around 33% early, falling to around 0% later.

A grey, cloudy day on The Cairnwell: summit wind broadly 5-20 mph, with gusts 15-25 mph during the afternoon (fresh and blowy). A meaningful thunderstorm risk is indicated from the morning into the evening. Avoid committing to exposed ridges if storms begin to build. Cloud base mostly around 400–700 m through daylight. Expect clag for much of the day, though a brief clearance is possible early in the morning. Cloud is likely to hang lowest on southern slopes; the northern side should see somewhat higher bases and better breaks. Some rain is likely, with around 5-10 mm indicated; timing and local totals remain uncertain.

Forecast confidence: Thunderstorm timing is inherently uncertain and may shift by several hours.

Cloud-free timing: Best around midday at about 75%; around 0% early and 0% later.

A grey, cloudy day on The Cairnwell: summit wind broadly 5-35 mph, with gusts 35-45 mph during the evening (strong winds). A meaningful thunderstorm risk is indicated from the morning into the evening. Avoid committing to exposed ridges if storms begin to build. Much calmer lower down - generally 0-10 mph in the valley, rising towards the tops. Cloud base around 300–600 m in the morning, then around 1200–1500 m around midday and 800–1100 m by late afternoon. The top is likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of a view from midday into the afternoon. Some rain is likely, with around 2-5 mm indicated; timing and local totals remain uncertain. Confidence moderate (Summit wind could be roughly 18-43 mph, which changes how difficult exposed walking may feel) - the summit peak could reasonably be 18-43 mph, so treat the headline as mid-range. Cloud base is the least certain part of this - the models are only moderately agreed, so it could sit a couple of hundred metres either way.

Forecast confidence: Rain is possible, but forecast models differ by about 12 hours on when it arrives.

Cloud-free timing: Around 0% early, improving to around 80% later.

A rough, clagged-in day on The Cairnwell: summit wind broadly 25-40 mph, with gusts 40-50 mph early in the morning (gale-force winds). Much calmer lower down - generally 10-20 mph in the valley, rising towards the tops. Cloud base around 800–1100 m in the morning, then around 400–700 m around midday and 900–1200 m by late afternoon. The top is likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of a view from late afternoon into the evening. Cloud is likely to hang lowest on northwestern slopes; the southeastern side should see somewhat higher bases and better breaks. Some rain is likely, with up to around 2 mm indicated; timing and local totals remain uncertain. Cold on top: air temperature broadly 2 to 6°C, feeling around -6 to -2°C in the wind - wrap up. Confidence moderate (Summit wind could be roughly 22-42 mph, which changes how difficult exposed walking may feel) - the summit peak could reasonably be 22-42 mph, so treat the headline as mid-range.